Canada Immigration Targets May Shift: 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan Expected in November
Canada is expected to release its new 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan around early November 2026, setting the country’s first official 2029 targets for permanent resident admissions and new temporary resident arrivals while confirming or adjusting the existing planning targets for 2027 and 2028. With Canada’s population growth slowing to historically low levels, the number of non-permanent residents declining, and Prime Minister Mark Carney recently discussing the possibility of a future “controlled increase” in population, the upcoming plan could have important implications for Express Entry, Provincial Nominee Programs, international students, temporary workers, and Francophone immigration.
2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan
Canada is preparing to release its next 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan, a major policy document that will help shape Canadian immigration over the coming years.
The new plan will establish Canada’s first official immigration targets for 2029, covering both permanent resident admissions and new temporary resident arrivals, including international students and temporary workers.
It will also confirm or adjust the existing planning targets for 2027 and 2028 under the current Immigration Levels Plan.
Under Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship is generally required to table the annual immigration report containing the Levels Plan in Parliament on or before November 1 each year.
If Parliament is not sitting on that date, the legislation allows the report to be tabled within the next 30 sitting days.
November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday. As a result, the new plan is reasonably expected around early November, although the federal government has not yet announced an exact release date.
For comparison, the current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan was released on November 5, 2025.
Another important policy signal has recently come from Prime Minister Mark Carney.
In comments reported in late September, Carney indicated that once the federal government considers Canada’s immigration system to be back under control, the next question becomes when the country can resume a “controlled increase” in population.
That represents a noticeable change in tone from the immigration reductions and temporary resident restrictions introduced since late 2024.
However, this does not mean that Canada has already decided to increase immigration targets for 2027.
A more cautious interpretation is that the federal government may now be considering whether a gradual return to population growth could become possible while continuing to control temporary resident levels.
For prospective immigrants, the most important question may therefore not be whether Canada admits 380,000, 390,000, or 400,000 permanent residents overall.
The more significant issue could be how those spaces are distributed among Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program, family sponsorship, Francophone immigration, and other Canadian immigration pathways.
Current Immigration Targets for 2027 and 2028
Before considering what may change under the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan, it is important to understand the targets that are already in place.
Under the current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada is targeting 380,000 permanent resident admissions per year.
The federal government has described the 2027 and 2028 figures as planning targets, meaning they can be confirmed or adjusted when the next Immigration Levels Plan is released.
| Category | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Permanent Resident Admissions | 380,000 | 380,000 | 380,000 |
| Planning Range | 350,000–420,000 | 350,000–420,000 | 350,000–420,000 |
| Economic Immigration | 239,800 | 244,700 | 244,700 |
| Federal High Skilled | 109,000 | 111,000 | 111,000 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 91,500 | 92,500 | 92,500 |
| Atlantic Immigration Program | 4,000 | 4,000 | 4,000 |
| Federal Business | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Federal Economic Pilots | 8,175 | 8,775 | 8,775 |
| Family Reunification | 84,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 |
| Spouses, Partners and Children | 69,000 | 66,000 | 66,000 |
| Parents and Grandparents | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 |
| Refugees and Protected Persons | 49,300 | 49,300 | 49,300 |
| Humanitarian and Other | 6,900 | 5,000 | 5,000 |
| Overall New Temporary Resident Arrivals | 385,000 | 370,000 | 370,000 |
| Temporary Workers | 230,000 | 220,000 | 220,000 |
| International Mobility Program | 170,000 | 170,000 | 170,000 |
| Temporary Foreign Worker Program | 60,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 |
| International Students | 155,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 |
| Francophone PR Outside Quebec | 9% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
| Approximate Number | ~30,267 | ~31,825 | ~35,175 |
Economic immigration already represents approximately 64% of total permanent resident admissions in 2027 and 2028, a relatively high share compared with previous years.
The Provincial Nominee Program is another area worth watching closely.
The current PNP target is 92,500 admissions in both 2027 and 2028, significantly above the 55,000 admissions target that had previously been planned for 2026 under the earlier 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
Temporary immigration, meanwhile, remains subject to tighter controls.
Canada is currently targeting 370,000 new temporary resident arrivals in both 2027 and 2028, with a planning range of 360,000 to 380,000.
This is considerably below the 673,650 temporary resident target that applied for 2025.
The overall policy direction therefore remains clear:
Canada is seeking to stabilize permanent resident admissions while continuing to reduce and better manage the flow of new temporary residents.
How Could the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan Change?
Canada has not yet officially released the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan.
The figures below should therefore not be interpreted as confirmed government targets.
They represent possible scenarios based on current policy direction, demographic trends, existing government commitments, labour market considerations, and recent political signals.
| Category | Current Target | Possible Direction | Key Considerations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Permanent Residents | 380,000/year | Stable or modest increase; 2027 could potentially move toward 390,000–400,000 | Government has begun discussing controlled population growth |
| Economic Immigration | 244,700 | Could remain stable or rise modestly to approximately 250,000–255,000 | Economic immigration already represents about 64% of PR admissions |
| Federal High Skilled / Express Entry | 111,000 | Potential increase to approximately 115,000–120,000 | Labour market needs and category-based selection |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 92,500 | Could potentially rise to approximately 95,000–100,000 | Provincial labour market and demographic needs |
| International Students | 150,000 | Possible modest revision to approximately 160,000–170,000 | Student numbers have declined sharply, but the 5% temporary resident goal remains a constraint |
| Temporary Workers | 220,000 | Broadly stable | Internal allocation between TFWP and IMP could change |
| Overall New Temporary Residents | 370,000 | Potentially around 380,000–390,000 | A student increase could raise the total |
| Family Reunification | 81,000 | Broadly stable | Limited pressure for major expansion or reduction |
| Refugees and Protected Persons | 49,300 | Broadly stable | Existing humanitarian commitments |
| Francophone Immigration Outside Quebec | 10.5% in 2028 | Continued increase toward 12% in 2029 | Canada has already established a rising Francophone immigration trajectory |
One of the most closely watched questions will be whether the overall permanent resident target changes.
Canada’s current official target for 2027 remains 380,000 permanent residents.
However, Carney’s recent comments about eventually resuming controlled population growth have increased attention on the possibility of a modest upward adjustment.
If the federal government concludes that temporary resident numbers and overall population growth have returned to more manageable levels, one possible scenario could involve maintaining admissions close to 380,000 or gradually moving toward approximately 390,000 to 400,000.
Again, these figures are not confirmed government policy.
For applicants, the internal allocation may ultimately matter more than the headline number.
For example, even if the total PR target remains at 380,000, the federal government could still increase the number of spaces allocated to economic immigration, Express Entry, or the Provincial Nominee Program by reducing or adjusting allocations elsewhere.
The same applies to international students.
Even if the current target of 150,000 new international students were modestly increased, the federal government would still need to balance that change against its commitment to reduce the temporary resident population to below 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027.
A return to the much higher international student volumes seen in earlier years would therefore remain difficult under the current policy framework.
Canada’s Slowing Population Growth Changes the Policy Environment
The demographic environment surrounding the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan is substantially different from the period when Canada first began introducing major immigration reductions.
Statistics Canada estimates that Canada’s population reached 41,798,407 as of July 1, 2026.
Between July 2025 and July 2026, the country’s population increased by only 189,425 people, or approximately 0.5%.
In percentage terms, this was Canada’s lowest annual population growth rate since 1915–1916.
In absolute numbers, it was the smallest annual population increase since 1944–1945.
At the same time, Canada’s non-permanent resident population has been declining.
As of July 1, 2026, Canada had approximately 2,779,774 non-permanent residents, representing around 6.7% of the total population.
That was 154,614 fewer than one year earlier.
For comparison, the revised peak was approximately 2,984,285 non-permanent residents, or 7.2% of Canada’s population, on October 1, 2024.
Using Canada’s July 2026 population as a simple reference point, 5% would represent approximately 2.09 million people.
However, that should not be treated as the exact threshold Canada must reach by the end of 2027.
The actual numerical threshold will depend on Canada’s total population at that time.
The latest population revisions also provide important context.
Statistics Canada reported approximately 0.2% population growth during the second quarter of 2026, whereas earlier preliminary estimates had suggested population declines across several consecutive quarters.
The revised April 1, 2026 population estimate was 41,718,064, which was 301,008 higher than the earlier preliminary estimate of 41,417,056.
This means that some earlier interpretations of the scale of Canada’s population decline need to be reconsidered in light of the revised data.
The broader trend, however, remains clear:
Canada’s population growth has slowed substantially, while the number of non-permanent residents has begun to decline.
That creates a different demographic environment for the federal government as it prepares the next Immigration Levels Plan.
Political Context Around the 2027 Immigration Target
Immigration has remained one of Canada’s most closely watched public policy issues over the past several years.
Recent immigration reductions have been presented by the federal government as part of an effort to restore balance and sustainability, reduce pressure on housing and public services, and bring temporary resident numbers under greater control.
The recent change in language from Prime Minister Mark Carney is therefore notable.
Carney has publicly discussed the possibility of eventually returning to controlled population growth once the government believes immigration levels are under control.
This does not mean that Canada has decided to increase its 2027 immigration target.
However, it suggests that the policy discussion may now be moving beyond the question of how much further immigration levels should be reduced.
Instead, the government may increasingly be considering when and under what conditions population growth could resume.
The word “controlled” remains important.
A future increase in immigration should not automatically be interpreted as a return to the rapid growth in temporary resident numbers seen in previous years.
A more likely policy question is how Canada balances permanent immigration, temporary immigration, housing capacity, labour market needs, and population growth.
The broader political environment may also influence the discussion.
Two national polls conducted in September 2026 showed the federal Liberals ahead of the Conservatives among respondents at the time.
A Leger survey conducted from September 5 to 7 among 1,538 Canadians reported 49% support for the Liberals and 33% for the Conservatives among decided voters.
A Liaison Strategies poll conducted from September 13 to 26 among 1,526 Canadians reported 46% for the Liberals and 29% for the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters.
Polling results do not determine government immigration policy and should not be interpreted as predicting the contents of the next Immigration Levels Plan.
From a policy-analysis perspective, however, one possible scenario is that the federal government could make a limited adjustment to the current 380,000 target for 2027, followed by a more gradual trajectory through 2028 and 2029 depending on population growth, housing conditions, labour market needs, and temporary resident levels.
There is also a competing policy view.
The C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council has recommended the following permanent resident admission levels:
- 2027: 380,000
- 2028: 350,000
- 2029: 340,000
The Council has also argued that the 5% non-permanent resident share should be treated as an upper limit, with a longer-term objective of moving closer to 3%.
This illustrates an important point:
There is currently no consensus that Canada will necessarily increase immigration levels again.
The actual direction will only become clear once the federal government releases the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan.
What Could the New Immigration Levels Plan Mean for Applicants?
For prospective immigrants, the most important number in the upcoming Immigration Levels Plan may not be the overall permanent resident target.
What matters more could be the allocation of spaces across individual Canadian immigration programs.
Express Entry Applicants
Express Entry candidates should watch whether the Federal High Skilled allocation increases from the current 2027 target of 111,000, as well as which categories the federal government prioritizes under category-based selection.
An increase in Canada’s overall PR target would not automatically mean lower CRS cut-off scores for all candidates.
Invitation opportunities would still depend on factors such as:
- the number of candidates in the Express Entry pool
- CRS score distribution
- the size and frequency of invitation rounds
- CEC, PNP, and other draw types
- category-based selection priorities
- Francophone immigration targets
Provincial Nominee Program Applicants
PNP applicants should monitor both the overall national PNP allocation and the number of nominations ultimately assigned to individual provinces and territories.
Even if the national PNP target rises, allocation changes could differ significantly by province.
Applicants interested in programs such as BC PNP, OINP, AAIP, and other provincial pathways should therefore evaluate each province separately.
International Students
Canada’s current 2027 target for new international student arrivals is 150,000.
If the next Immigration Levels Plan raises that target modestly, it would not necessarily mean that Canada’s international student policies are returning to their previous settings.
Students will still need to consider:
- study permit requirements
- Designated Learning Institution requirements
- Post-Graduation Work Permit eligibility
- fields of study
- employment prospects after graduation
- realistic pathways from study to permanent residence
Choosing a program based solely on the ability to obtain a study permit may no longer be sufficient for applicants whose long-term objective is Canadian permanent residence.
Temporary Foreign Workers
Canada’s current 2027 target for new temporary workers is 220,000, including:
- 170,000 under the International Mobility Program
- 50,000 under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program
Even if the overall worker target remains relatively stable, the balance between these programs could change.
Policies may also continue to differ by sector, region, wage level, and labour shortage needs.
Francophone Applicants
Francophone immigration has one of the clearest growth trajectories within Canada’s current immigration strategy.
The federal government has set targets for French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec of:
- 9% in 2026
- 9.5% in 2027
- 10.5% in 2028
- 12% by 2029
Applicants with strong French-language ability may therefore continue to find opportunities through Express Entry French-language category draws, Provincial Nominee Programs, and dedicated Francophone immigration pathways.
Overall, the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan is reasonably expected around early November 2026.
Under Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the annual report is generally required by November 1, with additional time permitted when Parliament is not sitting.
Because November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday, and the previous Immigration Levels Plan was released on November 5, 2025, early November is a reasonable expectation.
However, the exact release date has not yet been officially announced.
The new plan will arrive at an important moment for Canadian immigration policy.
Since Canada began reducing immigration growth in late 2024:
- population growth has slowed to historically low levels
- the number of non-permanent residents has declined
- labour shortages remain in certain sectors and regions
- Canada still intends to reduce temporary residents to below 5% of the population
- Francophone immigration targets continue to increase
One of the most important questions will therefore be whether Canada begins to separate permanent immigration growth from temporary immigration restraint.
Canada could, for example, continue to restrict international student or temporary worker volumes while allocating more spaces to Express Entry, PNP, or other economic immigration programs.
Alternatively, the government could continue maintaining or gradually reducing overall permanent resident admissions, as recommended by some policy organizations.
For applicants, the practical message is straightforward:
Do not focus only on whether Canada’s overall target is 380,000, 390,000, or 400,000. Pay close attention to how many spaces are allocated to the immigration program that actually applies to you.
The 2027 targets will have the most immediate impact on current applicants, while the 2028 and 2029 figures will provide a clearer picture of whether Canadian immigration policy is moving toward renewed controlled growth or continuing along a more restrained path.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will Canada announce the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan?
The plan is expected around early November 2026.
Under Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the immigration minister generally must table the annual report containing the Immigration Levels Plan on or before November 1.
If Parliament is not sitting on that date, the report may be tabled within the next 30 sitting days.
November 1, 2026 falls on a Sunday, and the previous Immigration Levels Plan was released on November 5, 2025.
The exact release date for this year has not yet been announced.
Will Canada increase or reduce its permanent resident target for 2027?
Canada’s current official target remains 380,000 permanent residents for 2027.
With population growth slowing to approximately 0.5% annually and Prime Minister Carney discussing the possibility of eventually resuming controlled population growth, a further major reduction is not the only policy option under consideration.
However, an increase has not been confirmed.
The C.D. Howe Institute Immigration Targets Council has proposed a different path, recommending 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, 350,000 in 2028, and 340,000 in 2029.
The federal government’s next Immigration Levels Plan will determine which direction Canada ultimately takes.
Could Canada increase international student targets in 2027?
A modest increase from the current 150,000 target is possible, but no increase has been officially confirmed.
Canada remains committed to reducing the temporary resident population to below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027.
With non-permanent residents still representing approximately 6.7% of Canada’s population, any increase in international student arrivals would need to be balanced against this broader commitment.
Could Express Entry and PNP allocations increase even if the overall PR target remains at 380,000?
Yes.
Canada can redistribute permanent resident spaces between immigration categories without changing the overall annual admissions target.
For example, the government could allocate additional spaces to Federal High Skilled programs or the Provincial Nominee Program while reducing allocations elsewhere.
Applicants should therefore pay attention to both the overall immigration target and the individual program allocations.
What will be new about the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan?
The biggest new element will be 2029.
The current plan only extends through 2028.
The new plan will establish Canada’s first official 2029 targets for permanent residents and new temporary residents, including international students and temporary workers.
It will also incorporate 2029 into Canada’s broader Francophone immigration planning, with the federal government currently targeting 12% French-speaking permanent resident admissions outside Quebec by 2029.
How Can Tianen Immigration’s Professional Team Assist You?
When the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan is released, the most important question will not simply be whether Canada’s overall immigration target increases or decreases.
Applicants will need to understand how spaces are redistributed among Express Entry, PNP, international students, temporary workers, Francophone immigration, and other Canadian immigration pathways—and what those changes mean for their individual circumstances.
Tianen Immigration can assess your education, language ability, Canadian and overseas work experience, NOC occupation, CRS score, preferred province, and current immigration status to help identify suitable Canadian immigration pathways.
If the new Levels Plan changes Express Entry or PNP allocations, our team can help you review your CRS strategy, category-based selection opportunities, provincial nomination options, and other available pathways.
For international students and temporary workers, we can also assist with longer-term planning that considers the connection between study, work authorization, Canadian work experience, and permanent residence.
Whether you are already in Canada or planning your Canadian immigration journey from overseas, understanding your eligibility before major policy changes take effect can help you respond more effectively when new opportunities or program adjustments are announced.